CIC Analysis of Netanyahu Foreign Policy Speech

On Sunday June 14, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an important speech outlining his government’s foreign policy. We would like to share some preliminary thoughts about this historic address.

The Netanyahu speech succeeded on a number of important fronts. In particular, the speech spoke to, and should be successful at securing the support of, the Israeli mainstream. Our analysis is that he hit the broadest national consensus right on. Many in mainstream Israel have been torn between the conviction that maintaining a Jewish, democratic Israel requires separation from the Palestinians, and the sorry assessment that no such viable separation was possible (given abiding Palestinian hostility to the very notion of our sovereign presence here, and the Palestinian practice of attacking Israel from any territory left by Israel). Netanyahu spoke to this mainstream, and did so well. Even Shimon Peres effusively praised the speech. Additionally, the speech navigated between Obama and Netanyahu’s right wing coalition partners. Netanyahu’s coalition will survive and Kadima will have a hard time criticizing the speech.

We also believe that the speech made important strides towards correcting the Obama Cairo narrative (especially with relation to the basis for Israel’s legitimate claim to the Land of Israel, regardless of the Holocaust).

Finally, the speech set clear criteria for the Palestinians and for Obama on Israel’s conditions for acquiescing (theoretically) to Palestinian statehood. Notably, Netanyahu set two critical caveats: Israel can countenance Palestinian statehood only if, philosophically, the Palestinians publicly acknowledge Israel’s essence as the homeland of the Jewish nation and, practically, if Palestine is demilitarized. The exact operative paragraph is: “If we receive this guarantee regarding demilitarization and Israel’s security needs, and if the Palestinians recognize Israel as the State of the Jewish people, then we will be ready in a future peace agreement to reach a solution where a demilitarized Palestinian state exists alongside the Jewish state.” It is this point that was retained by most international media and is featured in major Canadian headlines today.

The speech clearly leaves “un-defused” the settlement issue. Netanyahu’s refusal to rule out expansion of existing settlements may create tension with the Obama administration, but there is a concern that Obama will pocket Netanyahu’s verbal concession on Palestinian statehood and seek to whittle down and scale back his pre-conditions.