David Weinberg, Director CIC Israel Office, says it’s finally a horse race, with Likud losing ground to Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu (YB) party along with the Shas party.
With one week to go until the Israeli vote, new notes of fluidity and uncertainty are creeping into what has been, until now, a relatively staid and stable campaign. Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu (YB) party along with the Shas party have been cutting into Likud’s voter base and gaining at Likud’s expense.
YB is up to 18 seats in some polls, and polling especially strongly among voters who had previously identified themselves as undecided. As many as 20 percent of Israelis say they intend to vote but remain undecided – with only five full campaign days left. Kadima is not making gains, but could draw even with the front-runner Likud if this slippage towards Lieberman continues.
The uncertainly is throwing the campaign into a tizzy. Kadima’s strategists are quietly helping Liberman’s campaign in the Russian sector, while Likud has launched a series of broadsides against YB.
Today, headlines appeared alleging that Lieberman has expressed willingness to divide Jerusalem; that he once joined an outlawed far-right party; and that he had untoward personal financial dealings with the Palestinian Authority.
For his part, Lieberman is keeping all his options open and won’t commit now to joining any specific government – of the political right or left. This could greatly complicate the post-election coalition-making; with Lieberman being the kingmaker.
Kadima realizes that its campaign is stuck, and is striking out in new directions. After running Livni as a tough, determined, masculine warrior for Israel, Kadima is switching gears and pitching a feminine Livni. They have her reading poetry, talking about peace, using metaphors about doves and children, and claiming that her female voice offers a new perspective for Israel.
Kadima also stopped talking about how Livni led the war effort against Hamas in Gaza, and moved to emphasizing how she will move the peace process forward. “Only I offer a real hope for peace for Israel,”
Livni told a major conference last night. “Only I can work with the world, gain their trust and support, and offer a diplomatic horizon for our children and for Palestinian children.” Kadima chief campaign strategist Eyal Arad believes that he can draw the undecided in Livni’s direction with these shifts in emphasis.
Likud is sticking to the basic policy messages which have been the anchors of its campaign: that Kadima and Livni failed to protect Israel from the Hezbollah and the Hamas; that Livni weakly speaks of withdrawals that have proven dangerous for Israel; that her belief in international guarantees and in the reliability of her Palestinian interlocutors is naïve; and that Netanyahu and his revamped Likud leadership team is more experienced, both on security and economic matters.
Netanyahu also has sharpened his messages about the need to decisively crush the Hamas; which the current Olmert-Livni-Barak government refrained from doing in the recent offensive in Gaza. The fact that Hamas continues to fire missiles into southern Israeli towns – including rockets on Sderot and Ashklelon yesterday and today – adds resonance to Netanyahu’s position.
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