In his weekly Canadian Jewish News media analysis column “According to Reports,†Paul Michaels, CIC Director of Communications, takes a look at an Egyptian scheme to stop smuggling into Gaza.
On Dec. 9, the BBC reported from Cairo that, according to unnamed intelligence sources, Egypt, helped by American army engineers, has started building a 10- to 11 kilometre- long “super-strength steel” wall along its border with Gaza. The barrier is described as extending 18 metres below the surface and is intended to cut the “smuggling tunnels” that run between Egypt and Gaza under the town of Rafa.
But given the magnitude of this 18-month project, it’s interesting to note the concluding paragraph in the BBC report: “The wall is not expected to stop all the smuggling, but it will force the Palestinians to go deeper and it will likely cut the hundreds of superficial tunnels closer to the surface that are used to move the bulk of the goods.”
In other words, this new, supposedly impenetrable barrier, will only make the tunnels more difficult to build, but will not prevent them from operating.
According to Jonathan Halevi, a Toronto-based intelligence expert and former adviser for policy planning in Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Egyptians are carrying out a devious policy.
In conversation, Halevi explained: “Egypt is trying to benefit both by appearing to ‘fight’ the smuggling along the border and letting the border remain virtually open without taking responsibility for the Gaza Strip. Egypt wants that responsibility to remain Israel’s burden. This double game must be unveiled.
“Even more ironic is the fact that that while the U.S. government sent Egypt sophisticated devices for spotting tunnels, they can be seen clearly from afar so the equipment is not even needed. Occasionally, but just for show, the Egyptians blow up or flood an abandoned tunnel hear and there, but, according to Palestinian sources, between 500 to 800 tunnels remain actively and openly in business, amounting to about $650 million this year, to both Egypt’s and Hamas’ benefit.â€
Halevi added: “The full and proper story about the ‘smuggling’ operations, which are actually regular import activity, remains to be told
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In “‘Clock for change is ticking’ in Iran, former top spy for Israel says” (Globe and Mail, Dec. 9), Tu Thanh Ha interviewed Efraim Halevy, former head of the Mossad (1998-2002).
Departing from what is widely seen as a virtual consensus among Israeli strategic analysts, Halevy maintains that though dangerous, Iran is not an existential threat to Israel.
Thanh Ha wrote: “Mr. Halevy rejects the apocalyptic language typically used to frame the prospect of Iran lobbing nuclear bombs at Israel.”
Halevy is quoted as saying: “I believe Israel is indestructible…I believe it is not possible to destroy the state of Israel. Because we have a defensive capability. And because we have a variety of offensive capabilities. A variety, not just one particular capability…We are a big country now…We have a critical mass of population which ensures that we cannot be destroyed.â€
Mentioning one example of Israel’s capability, Thanh Ha cited Israel’s three new German-built submarines equipped, it’s believed, with nuclear missiles. According to other sources these submarines are likely deployed in the Mediterranean and Arabian Seas within striking distance of Iran.
Many Israeli analysts, however, point out that while such weapons may discourage normal, rational actors, it cannot be known whether Iran’s current religiously fundamentalist leaders, who are determined to acquire nuclear weapons and have repeatedly threatened to destroy Israel, can in fact be deterred (as was the case, for instance, with the U.S. and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War).
Moreover, while Israel is indeed a very strong country, given its tiny size (slightly smaller, within the 1967 lines, than Lake Ontario), even one Iranian nuclear bomb could do immense damage.
It is refreshing to hear Halevy’s confident assertion that Iran is not an existential threat to Israel. But most strategic thinkers believe Israel cannot operate under this assumption.
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